Barry Sanders once said that the difference between a 6 yard loss and a 60 yard touchdown is 6 inches. I’ve watched many games over the years and sometimes the difference between a blow out and a close game comes down to one play. Attention to detail matters. With my passion for data analysis and history, I will show why I believe Kansas City is ready for a fall.
So far, all the Super Bowl week commentary has focused on the explosiveness of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. After all, not only do they have arguably the best quarterback in the game today, but they have elite players at tight end and three wide receivers who would each be number 1 receivers on many teams. We watched Kansas City overcome deficits in both of their playoff games, including a remarkable 24 point deficit that they erased in less than a quarter of play.
While they look unstoppable, a closer look reveals two serious challenges that can make a difference in a game where inches matter. Both are self inflicted.
There are two reasons we are not talking about this year being Kansas City’s second consecutive Super Bowl appearance, and these issues have not gone away. First of all, they have a habit of starting slow. In last year’s AFC championship game, Kansas City failed to score a point in the first half. Considering the game went to overtime, any points in the first half would have given Kansas City the victory.
Secondly, and far more important, is careless mistakes at the wrong time. In the fourth quarter, New England quarterback Tom Brady threw what looked to be a game deciding interception. However, Kansas City Chiefs player Dee Ford lined up offside, resulting in a penalty and, more importantly, allowed New England to retain the ball and later score.
But that was last year……
Sure, the Chiefs were down by 24 points against the Houston Texans. No problem! KC Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and company erased that deficit in less than a quarter of play and won that game 51–31. Against The Tennessee Titans, KC was down by 10 points before rallying to win 35–24. Slow starts do not matter with this team. Their high octane offense, led by one of the most dynamic players to play quarterback in NFL history, is unstoppable. I have seen writers analyze every offensive statistic as reasons why Kansas City will win. But there are some cracks in the armor they are missing.
Against Tennessee, Kansas City committed four defensive penalties giving first downs to the Titans. To me, that looks like a team that failed to learn any lessons from the Dee Ford penalty last year.
I realize some of this analysis is going to fall on deaf ears, but let’s dive into this a little bit. Kansas City got lucky. Lucky that Tennessee Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, a man who had a great season, is not in the same league as Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Lucky that Tennessee pulled an upset over the Baltimore Ravens, a team with their own MVP Quarterback — Lamar Jackson — who also had the best record in the NFL this year.
Now let’s contrast Kansas City with perhaps the best dynasty in sports — the New England Patriots under coach Bill Belichick. They never make the stupid penalty. They have a “do your job” philosophy in which they focus on EVERY detail. Now contrast that philosophy with Kansas City. After the AFC championship game last year, KC coach Andy Reid made a comment about the Dee Ford offside play. He stated that refs typically give players a heads up that they are offside and the referee did not do that in this case.
That’s why Andy Reid is, as of this writing, ringless. Bill Belichick would never blame the referees in that situation. He would blame his player. In fact, you rarely even see the patriot commit such penalties, because these details are ingrained in their heads the moment they arrive in the locker room.
Let’s not forget the San Francisco 49ers. In every category — offense, defense, special teams, they are an upgrade to every playoff team Kansas City faced. Tennessee had a running game but nothing special in the passing game. Houston had a high flying passing offense, but no defense or a running game. On top of that, San Francisco was three plays in three games away from being undefeated. They have won games when Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards, such as an unbelievable comeback against New Orleans. They dominated in the NFC championship game when he only threw 6 passes. Kansas City, meanwhile, needs Patrick Mahomes to play at his absolute best. Oh, did I mention he won’t have a lot of help from the KC defense, which is ranked 27th in the league against the run and in the bottom half of the league in all other categories. Not a good sign against a San Francisco team with one of the top running games in the league.
While they have a great coach in Kyle Shanahan, they also have the luxury of benefiting from the experience of assistant head coach and two time Super Bowl winning head coach Mike Shanahan. He is deep into the details of every aspect of the game.
Why the right data matters…avoiding lazy metrics:
We often just scratch the surface when analyzing data. This is why Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. It is easy to measure things like how far somebody throws a ball or how fast they run. Judging how fast somebody can read a defense and pick it apart is harder. Tom Brady never had a very strong arm. He had an accurate arm. He certainly was not fast. But he has been a clutch player his entire career. Measuring this is tough.
We also do not do a good job of looking at the “why behind the what.” This season, the Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL. As you can see from the photo, they had the most yards per game. However, they failed to make the playoffs. Why? Because we did not dig deeper. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys had a top ranked offense. However, they shined against teams with losing records. In fact, I used to say that the only data point you needed to analyze whether of not the Cowboys would win is whether or not they were playing a winning team. If the answer was yes, then bet against them.
Dallas finally did beat a winning team in week 15 — the Los Angles Rams. But a closer look at this Rams team showed a team that was riddled with injuries and falling off the cliff at the wrong time. Other than that game, Dallas could not beat a single team with a winning record, and they had awful losses to teams that had losing records — the Jets and the Bears. However, many sports writers predicted Dallas would be a playoff team. They did not see the glaring holes in defense or the fact that the roster really was not that talented.
History is full of examples of the “unstoppable” team that becomes, well, stoppable.
During the 1997 season, The Green Pay packers were unstoppable. They had, at the time, one of the most high flying offenses in history. In the Super Bowl, they faced a Denver Broncos team led by a 37 year old John Elway who was no longer in his prime. How did they win? They kept him on the sideline with a power running game. In the process, Denver shocked the entire football world who had already started calling the Packers a dynasty and assumed victory was a given.
During the 2007 season, New England had the best offense in the NFL. THEY looked unstoppable, going 16–0 in the regular season. They lost the Super Bowl to a number six playoff seed, partly due to a miraculous catch. But it is yet another example of an unstoppable team being, well, stoppable.
I could go on with other examples: the 2001 Rams who lost to the Patriots; Look at the rematch between these franchises in last year’s Super Bowl. Could anyone really have predicted that the Rams would have only scored 3 points last year?
In a game of inches, attention to detail matters. In each of these upsets, the other team found a vulnerability to exploit. With two weeks to prepare for the big game, odds are you are going to find SOMETHING you can exploit against the other team. Therefore, you cannot afford to, as one of my mentors used to say, “make yourself the easy out.”
Kansas City is a fun team to watch. I can see why they are earning so much attention. But I look at data, and every detail matters. Kansas City may win this Sunday. But at some point, the lack of attention to detail will hold them back. It already kept them out of a Super Bowl last year.
The Detroit Lions Factor:
Last year, the Detroit Lions held the high flying Los Angeles Rams to zero points through three quarters of play during the regular season. Unfortunately for the Lions, the game is four quarter long, and they lost. After last year’s Super Bowl, in which the Patriots held the Rams to three points, Bill Belichick said they watched film of how the Lions played the Rams and implemented some of the same concepts.
This year, during week 3 of the regular season, the Lions became the first team to hold Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdowns. Kansas City still won, thanks to a heads up play resulting in a fumble return. But I imagine that San Francisco may be looking at that game film.
Conclusion:
But hey, whatever I say, they still need to play the game. Andy Reid may be lighting a fire under his team, telling them not to make dumb penalties. Maybe they come out of the gate on fire and jump out to an insurmountable lead. But history and data suggest that while possible, this is not likely. I think San Francisco, based on their own talent, the ability to exploit a non existing Kansas City defense, and that lack of detail on the part of Kansas City, will win this game 31–24.
